Portland’s Dirty Secret
It feels like every investor I talk to is chasing Phoenix, Austin, Dallas, Tampa.
Meanwhile, they’re completely ignoring the market with a 4.2% vacancy rate – the tightest in America – while the national average sits at 10.3%.
Portland.
While everyone fights over the same overheated markets, the contrarian plays that could triple your returns are sitting there… completely overlooked.
I’ll show you exactly why this herd mentality is costing you a fortune.
But first, quick industry updates…
📰 This Week in Storage
Capital Is Flowing: Mezz lenders are pushing 80-85% last dollar exposure at 12-16%+. Bridge lenders like Post Road ($280M deployed this year) and Emerald Creek ($280M in storage/mixed-use) are actively hunting deals. Translation: Creative capital stacks are back.
Portland Defies Gravity: The Millichap Midyear Outlook confirms it – Portland’s 4.2% vacancy is the lowest among major metros, even as completions doubled year-over-year. Everyone’s watching Phoenix (8.3% vacancy) while Portland quietly prints money.
The Contrarian Play Nobody Sees
Let me show you the math:
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Phoenix (The “Hot” Market):
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Vacancy: 8.3% and rising
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Rent: $1.10/sq ft (down 3.5% YoY)
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Competition: Brutal
Portland (The “Forgotten” Market):
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Vacancy: 4.2% (lowest in America)
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Rent: $1.36/sq ft
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Competition: Nobody’s looking
Portland has less than HALF the vacancy of markets everyone’s chasing.
Here’s why this matters: Vacancy below 5% means pricing power. Above 8% means you’re in a race to the bottom.
I watched a client pass on a Portland facility because “everyone knows the Pacific Northwest is dying.”
An institutional fund bought it instead. Now, their projected IRR is 24%.
Meanwhile, that first investor is still competing with 47 offers on every Phoenix property.
The uncomfortable truth: Sometimes the best storage markets are the ones your competition isn’t looking at.
Sun Belt migration triggered a development boom. Those markets are now oversupplied. Meanwhile, “exodus” markets like Portland maintained disciplined supply growth and now have superior fundamentals.
Your cash flow isn’t determined by population growth headlines. It’s determined by how tight the market is RIGHT NOW.
Portland has:
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Healthcare adding 10,000+ jobs
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Population growth accelerating three consecutive years
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Household formation up 45% from decade average
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Completions 50% below historical norms
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The lowest vacancy rate in the country
While everyone fights over overpriced assets in oversupplied markets, a different game is being played.
The lesson: Stop following the herd. Start analyzing actual fundamentals. Look where nobody else is looking.
After financing $300M+ in storage deals, here’s what I know:
Investors who build generational wealth don’t follow the crowd into consensus trades. They find superior fundamentals everyone else ignores.
Portland in 2025 looks like Austin in 2012.
Will you have the stomach to be contrarian when it counts?
If you want to learn how to structure deals in markets everyone else is avoiding, I’ve put together my complete financing playbook at Storage Financing Secrets – including the exact underwriting models and lender presentation templates I use to close deals in both hot AND cold markets.
Access the complete playbook here →
Here’s to your success,
Cody Baker
P.S. I mapped 10-year returns of investors who bought in “hot” markets versus “cold” markets (2015-2019). Contrarian investors outperformed by 127% over the full cycle. The time to be contrarian is when it feels uncomfortable – not when everyone else figures it out.